Anticipating El Niño: Pre-empting harm in Ethiopia and the Philippines
Published: Nov 4, 2026 Reading time: 6 minutes Share: Share an articleThe 2026–27 El Niño cycle will bring drought to some regions and floods to others. Rather than waiting for humanitarian crises to emerge, we are preparing communities in Ethiopia and the Philippines to withstand the effects of El Niño. Our experience shows that Anticipatory Action works. Moreover, governments, donors, and international organisations must make it a habit.
In brief
• El Niño is a natural climate pattern driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific. The 2026–27 event is forecast to be robust and to persist through March 2027.
• Anticipatory Action is the process of taking early action on foreseeable issues before disaster occurs.
• Ethiopia: since June 2026, we have rehabilitated shallow wells and strengthened water committees and household water safety.
• Philippines: since July 2026, we have been providing rainwater harvesting systems, water storage, cash and livelihood support.
Anticipatory Action at scale needs flexible, pre-arranged finance, and political leadership.
El Niño 2026–27: Why we are acting now
Rather than causing a single type of disaster, El Niño creates a variety of unpredictable extreme weather patterns. They can bring severe droughts, heatwaves, and water shortages, or trigger heavy rains, flooding, and landslides. These effects threaten food production, livestock, safe water, and health.
Crucially, climate anomalies do not happen in a vacuum. In areas enduring poverty, damaged infrastructure, or conflict, El Niño amplifies existing vulnerabilities—turning weather risks into humanitarian crises.
Our approach: action not reaction
El Niño provides a rare opportunity to act before dangers become disasters. Through our Disaster Risk Reduction and Anticipatory Action work and our projects Ethiopia and the Philippines, we see these challenges firsthand.
What is Anticipatory Action?
Anticipatory Action (AA) is an approach that uses trusted information about an expected hazard, natural or man-made, to take timely action before its impacts occur. Its aim is to reduce humanitarian impacts on people, livelihoods, and services. Trusted information must be reliable, accurate, verified, consistent, and based on good methods and data.
Ethiopia: Securing water infrastructure before drought
Northern Ethiopia has endured years of recurrent drought, climate-related shocks, and conflict, that have degraded water and sanitation infrastructure.
Additionally, this year’s El Niño is expected to intensify drought conditions even more, through reduced rainfall and groundwater recharge. The result will likely see a decline in water availability, increased pressure on infrastructure, deterioration of hygiene conditions, and elevated risks of waterborne diseases.
Communities relying on partially functional water systems are particularly vulnerable to such risks. Reduced water availability increases household expenditure, disrupts livelihoods, affects livestock production, and limits school attendance. Furthermore, it disproportionately increases the burden on women and girls, who often travel long distances to collect water.
What we are doing
Without waiting for the worst, we launched Anticipatory Action activities in the north of the country with EU funds. Particularly, we are restoring critical rural water infrastructure and supporting community preparedness in high-risk drought affected areas. We have:
• Rehabilitated 23 priority shallow wells;
• Trained 161 committee members to operate and maintain water infrastructure. They learned to practice sound governance, financial management, water safety, and climate resilience. Together, these strengthen local ownership and improve long-term functionality.
• Gave 450 households safe water storage containers, hygiene materials, water treatment products, and menstrual supplies.
• Taught safe water handling, handwashing, household water treatment, environmental sanitation, and prevention of waterborne diseases.
Our approach, conducted with local participation, will help communities stay resilient in challenging months.
The Philippines: Protecting water and livelihoods in Tawi-Tawi
The Philippines consistently ranks among the world's most disaster-prone countries. Reflecting its high exposure and vulnerability to climate-related hazards The Philippines has topped the WorldRiskIndex for several consecutive years. Compounding this, forecasts indicate that The Philippines will face severe dry spell and drought conditions associated with El Niño.
In Tawi-Tawi, one of the country's most climate-vulnerable provinces, drought is expected to intensify during the dry season. Unlike many parts of the country, much of the population lives with limited access to freshwater.
What we are doing
Following the activation of a Start Network anticipation alert, People in Need Philippines, together with Tarbilang Foundation, Inc. and BMFI (Balay Mindanaw Foundation, Inc.) launched anticipatory interventions in July 2026. These reduced the expected impacts of the El Niño-induced drought before conditions deteriorated further. Communities received:
• Rainwater harvesting and filtration kits for 793 households;
• Support for installing and rehabilitating of community water storage systems;
• Health and hygiene awareness activities, including information on waterborne diseases and psychosocial first aid;
• Cash support for 200 vulnerable households during the drought period;
• Small-scale alternative livelihood support, to help protect incomes.
From pilots to practice: what needs to happen
Anticipatory Action cannot rely on humanitarian organisations alone. What we are doing in Ethiopia, and the Philippines shows that early action is possible. The challenge is making it routine and these need governments, donors, and international organisations working together.
Governments must lead the change
Through their leadership, institutions, and resources, governments can turn climate warnings into Anticipatory Action before hazards become humanitarian crises. This demands political commitment, coordinated preparedness, and timely decisions. Governments must:
1. Integrate Anticipatory Actions into national disaster risk management and social protection systems.
2. Pre-determine triggers, responsibilities, and financing.
3. Provide actionable and inclusive Early Warnings.
Donors must finance early action, not only emergencies
Donors can make the lead time, provided by El Niño, operational by investing in preparedness, ensuring that flexible finance is available before impacts peak. They can strengthen national and local systems to turn early warnings into timely protection. Donors can:
1. Finance readiness, not only delivery.
2. Provide pre-arranged and flexible finances.
3. Strengthen national and local systems.
International organisations must turn prediction into action
International organisations are critical in transforming climate forecasts into coordinated, timely, and locally relevant Anticipatory Actions. They must strengthen preparedness, adapt to existing programmes and work alongside governments and local actors. They can:
1. Shift from reactive response to Anticipatory Action.
2. Strengthen coordination and collective Anticipatory Action.
3. Strengthen local preparedness and long-term DRM capacities.
Conclusion: A warning we can act on
El Niño is a natural phenomenon, but its consequences are humanitarian and avoidable. With increasingly reliable climate forecasts, stronger Early-Warning Systems and proven anticipatory approaches, we have the opportunity to protect vulnerable communities before droughts, floods and other climate hazards turn into humanitarian emergencies. Our work in Ethiopia and the Philippines demonstrates how Anticipatory Action can protect people before the worst impacts occur.
However, Anticipatory Action cannot rely on humanitarian organisations alone. Donors must provide timely and flexible financing. Governments must lead and institutionalise preparedness. International organisations must coordinate their efforts and strengthen local capacities.
El Niño gives us a warning. It is our collective responsibility to turn that warning into action.
