Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: The Current Situation

Mass migration triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not simply about people fleeing Ukraine to the nearest safe country; it has become increasingly complex. There is ongoing movement of Ukrainians between individual European Union countries, migration to Canada—where there is a strong Ukrainian diaspora—, and "circular" mobility to-and-from Ukraine; this is particularly intense on Poland's eastern border.

The situation in Europe 

According to estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are currently approximately 5.3 million Ukrainian refugees across Europe. Of these, 4.3 million are in EU countries. 

The distribution of refugees has changed significantly since February 2022. While Poland recorded the highest number of forcibly displaced persons in 2022, Germany is currently the main destination. According to the latest statistics, there are now about 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees residing in Germany. The numbers of arrivals fluctuate but remains significant. In the summer of 2025, the net migration increase (number of arrivals minus number of departures) was 7,000 to 8,000 per month. 

The refugee situation in Poland has changed significantly over the past four years. Of the nearly two million refugees who were granted temporary protection by Poland. According to official data, about one million currently remain; however, alternative sources put the figure at 600,000 to 700,000. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians left Poland in 2022, mainly to Germany, but also to other Western European countries to a lesser extent. 

The number of temporary protection holders in Poland is relatively stable. However, it is important to note the considerable mobility on the Poland-Ukraine border. Tens of thousands of people move in both directions every day.

Focussing on the number of refugees per capita, the Czech Republic tops the EU ranking, where temporary protection holders from Ukraine make up almost 4% of the population (in November, there were almost 400,000 Ukrainians in the Czech Republic). The only country in Europe with a higher relative number of refugees is Moldova, which is not a member of the EU. 

In this context, it is important to note that in the case of Ireland, as in Germany and Austria, the Ukrainian refugee crisis is just one of many. The mass arrival of Ukrainians is occurring at the same time as record numbers of asylum seekers from non-European countries such as Syria, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Venezuela are also arriving in these countries.

Canada and the USA

A significant number of Ukrainian refugees have found refuge overseas. Since February 2022, more than half a million Ukrainians have headed to Canada and the USA. Both countries have introduced special visa regimes for Ukrainian refugees.

Many of those who went to Canada went through the CUAET (Canada-Ukraine Authorisation for Emergency Travel) programme, which, among other things, made it easier for Ukrainians to obtain work and study permits. According to the latest available data, Canada has accepted about 300,000 Ukrainians through this programme. Currently, new applicants wishing to move to Canada generally use standard residence permits.

Since February 2022, approximately a quarter of a million Ukrainians have left for the United States. They were able to take advantage of either temporary protected status or special humanitarian visas granted under the Uniting For Ukraine (U4U) programme, based on the principle of individual sponsorship. In January 2025, after the Trump Administration took office, the U4U programme was suspended. During the year, the media reported that many Ukrainians were having difficulty renewing their residence permits and, as a result, found themselves in a legal vacuum.

The relatively high interest of Ukrainians in emergency relocation to Canada and the US can be explained, among other things, by their deep and rich migration history. There has been a strong Ukrainian diaspora in both North American countries since the nineteenth century. 

Russia
There is no reliable and verifiable data on how many Ukrainian refugees are in Russia. In any case, Moscow’s statements about millions of people whom Russia has given refuge must be strongly rejected. In addition, Russian propaganda uses dangerously misleading terminology, routinely referring to forced movements from occupied territories as "evacuations". From the perspective of the international community, given the non-recognition of Russian annexations, these are deportations. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in connection with the mass abduction of Ukrainian children. The exact number of abducted children is unknown. Conservative estimates put the figure at around 20,000, but some respected sources cite many times that number. From an International Humanitarian Law perspective of the forcible transfer of children from one group to another constitutes genocide. 

Returnees

Many refugees return to Ukraine, but usually only for a short time, for example, to receive urgent medical care, check on their property, or for family reasons. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that 1.2 million people have returned long-term to Ukraine. 

Refugees' plans to return change over time. More and more people see their future and that of their children in the countries where they now live rather than in Ukraine. According to recent surveys, this applies to about two-thirds of displaced persons in the Czech Republic. Only about one-fifth of those surveyed want to return (the rest are unable to answer). The situation is similar in other EU countries.

Ukraine has recently been stepping up its efforts to get as many refugees as possible to return. The newly established Ministry of Unity should help in this endeavour. However, both leading Ukrainian officials and independent experts agree that a mass return will only be possible if three basic conditions are met: work, housing, and security. 

Internal refugees

An often overlooked but integral aspect of the Ukrainian refugee crisis is internal displacement. According to an IOM report from October 2025, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs, commonly referred to as internal refugees) is approximately 3.7 million, which corresponds to about one-eighth of the total population. 

Almost half of IDPs come from the Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. The distribution of internal refugees has changed significantly over time: while in the first months of the war most people sought refuge in the west of the country, most of them now remain in the east, which has been most affected by the war. Almost one million internally displaced persons now live in the Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts alone. Another 700,000 internal refugees are located in Kyiv and the Kyiv Oblast. 

The vast majority of internal refugees live in private, mostly rented accommodation. There are currently around 70,000 people in collective centres, of which there are just over a thousand.

The living conditions of internal refugees are difficult. Many of them have problems finding work, despite the labour shortage that plagues the Ukrainian economy—unfortunately, their qualifications often do not match local demands. In other cases, the obstacle is low wages, which are often insufficient to cover living expenses. The consequences are not difficult to imagine: high risks of poverty and relatively more frequent reliance on humanitarian aid.