Voices of Resilience in Fragile Context

For more than 20 years, we have witnessed climate change reshape lives and livelihoods in Afghanistan and Ethiopia.  

“Through the voices from communities, small business owners, and local governments, coupled with our findings from the ground, the stories you’ll read here powerfully illustrate the daily realities of farmers, herders, and families who are confronting drought, soil degradation, floods and the loss of vital resources, yet finding ways to adapt and strengthen their resilience,” explains Julian Burgos, Climate Resilience Lead and PIN’s delegate to COP30.

As leaders and climate experts gather at COP30, these stories offer a clear message: climate adaptation in fragile and conflict-affected settings, and locally led climate action, should be top priorities. Without greater investment in locally led resilience and adaptation, millions risk being left behind.

We call for a renewed commitment, from governments, donors, and international partners, to scale up climate finance for adaptation, to ensure it reaches those most vulnerable to climate impacts, and to build a future where no community is too fragile to adapt. 

Afghanistan — Climate Vulnerability Amid Crisis

Afghanistan stands at the crossroads of overlapping crises. Decades of conflict, widespread poverty, and a collapsing economy have been compounded by political instability after the Taliban’s takeover. Beyond immediate humanitarian needs, Afghans are calling for long-term solutions to rebuild livelihoods and strengthen resilience in the face of a changing climate.

Afghanistan is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, ranking 180th from 187th countries according to ND Gain Index, where geography, governance fragility, and economic challenges increase vulnerability to climate shocks. Eighty-nine per cent of the population relies on agriculture as the main source of food and overall livelihood, yet farming systems remain fragile and underperforming. Our 2024 Multisectoral Needs Assessment found that most households depend on irregular agricultural labour and small-scale farming. These livelihoods are increasingly eroded by droughts, floods, and shifting rainfall patterns.

“Twenty years ago, there was a lot of water. Everywhere here was completely green. Year after year, the greenery became less, the trees became fewer, the water decreased,” says Mohammad Ali Rezaei, a farmer from Ghazni province. 

“Our need and our problem is only water. If there is water, all problems are solved. Everything is solved, but there is no water.”

Afghanistan has suffered three successive severe dry spells or droughts from 2021 to 2023. Winters are now warmer and snowpacks thinner, reducing water for spring planting. Summers bring hotter temperatures that dry rivers and accelerate soil erosion. When rains do come, they are erratic and often destructive, causing flash floods and landslides.

Projections indicate that average rainfall may slightly decrease while extreme rainfall events will intensify, heightening flood risks. The country is now enduring its third consecutive year of drought-like conditions, severely reducing crop yields and livestock productivity. As a result, many families are forced to adopt harmful coping strategies: selling animals, borrowing at high interest rates, or migrating in search of water and work.

PIN’s recent assessment found that 71% of farmers reported severe disruption to agricultural activities due to climate-induced disasters, and 56% cited damage to or disrepair of irrigation systems as a key barrier. Farmers also face shortages of quality seeds, fertilizers, and tools, while livestock owners struggle with fodder scarcity, disease outbreaks, and limited veterinary services.

“Before there was a lot of snow. Our mountains in Godal village were once a paradise. Now when you see them, it’s like hell,” says Ebrahimi, a village elder and representative in Godal village. 

These environmental shifts are driving migration and deepening poverty. As Ebrahimi explains, “Because of poverty, people fled from here, from this region. Because living conditions here were not possible. They fled and went to Kabul and Ghazni. Because of drought and lack of water, this happened. Otherwise, nobody wants to flee their own homeland and leave.” Such displacement not only fragments communities but also increases competition over scarce resources in urban areas already under strain.

Structural barriers further limit recovery: lack of capital, limited market access, and poor rural infrastructure, especially roads and storage, reduce farmers’ ability to earn stable incomes. For women, these challenges are multiplied by social restrictions and reduced economic rights. For example, only 5% of women-led SME received loans. They rely on informal loans, often from friends and relatives, reflecting both exclusion from formal credit and determination to invest.

Yet, despite daunting challenges, the path forward lies in empowering these local capacities, combining traditional water management, community solidarity, and modern climate-smart practices. Supporting Afghan farmers and families in adapting is not just a humanitarian imperative; it is an investment in stability, dignity, and hope for the country’s future.

Key Facts:

• 89% of Afghans depend on agriculture (OCHA, 2025)
  
• 3 successive severe dry spells or droughts from 2021 to 2023
  
• 71% of farmers report severe disruption to agriculture (PIN MSNA, 2024)
  
• 56% cite damaged or inadequate irrigation systems 

Living with a Changing Climate in Ethiopia 

Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa and one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, is also extremely vulnerable to climate change, ranking 145 out of 187 countries in ND-Gain Index. Between 2020 and 2023, the Horn of Africa experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons. By October 2023, UNICEF reported that around 29.7 million people in Ethiopia were in need of humanitarian assistance.

The impacts of climate change compound Ethiopia’s existing challenges of conflict, displacement, and poverty. Moreover, tensions over dwindling water and grazing resources in pastoral areas continue to drive local conflicts and migration.

People in Need has been present in the south of Ethiopia since 2003. In the last three years, our team worked with communities on restoring landscapes in Hambaricho (Kembata zone) and Halaba zone, Central Ethiopia Regional State. 

From our research and experience on the ground, we know rain-fed subsistence agriculture and agro-pastoralism remain the main sources of livelihood for local communities – making them highly exposed to climate variability and recurrent hazards.

As Genet Desalegn, a government official from the Natural Resources Department of the Agriculture Office in Kadida Gamela woreda, Kembata Zone, recalls,

The same assessment revealed extensive deforestation, population growth, and agricultural encroachment, leading to degraded landscapes and heightened risks of erosion and soil loss. 

PIN’s findings highlight a wide range of climate-induced impacts: disrupted cropping seasons, reduced soil moisture, increased floods, landslides, and droughts, outbreaks of plant diseases and pests, and higher prevalence of human diseases such as malaria.

“These shocks collectively lead to loss of income, crop failure, livestock deaths, and worsening malnutrition, particularly among women and children,” explains Julian Burgos, PIN’s Climate Resilience Lead and COP30 delegate.

The assessment found that vulnerability levels differ by age, gender, health, and wealth, with children, lactating and pregnant women, the elderly, persons living with disabilities, and marginalized ethnic groups among the most at risk.

For rural families, these changes are not just environmental; they are existential. As government officer Daniel Afawork, coordinator of the Agriculture Office in Ley Bedene, Wera Woreda, in Halaba, put it: “The solution cannot wait; it’s a matter of survival and existence.”

The loss of fertile soil and unpredictable weather is forcing farmers to make painful choices. Some migrate in search of work, while others struggle to adapt with limited resources. “We never thought that the soil would run out,” said Shifa Mosa, a farmer from Halaba, remembering how his land was washed away during floods.

Local Action and Emerging Solutions

Yet across Ethiopia, communities are responding with courage, innovation, and hope. Farmers are building terraces, planting deep-rooted grasses, and turning to organic farming to hold the soil in place.

“Sowing seeds, planting grass, elephant grass, and other types of plants can change the local ecosystem,” explained Daniel Afawork from the Agriculture Office in Halaba.  

“Food and nutrition security would be ensured, the food system would be improved, and hunger and disease would be eliminated.”

The private sector is playing a key role in this transformation. “We provide seeds to reduce soil erosion, increase fertility and productivity,” shares Rejato Bergena, a seed supplier in Halaba.

However, there are still many challenges. When we introduce new varieties, there is an adoption challenge.

“Lack of awareness is difficult; one of the problems (…) is the lack of land. The lack of sufficient capital (…) makes it difficult for us to bring all of our seed to market,” shares Tadesse Bakalo, another private businessowner from the region.

Ethiopians are not waiting passively for change; they are leading it.

From the terraced hillsides of Halaba to the floodplains of Hambaricho, local voices remind us that adaptation to climate change cannot wait. Ethiopia’s farmers, private sector actors, and local governments are already acting — often with very limited means. They are protecting their land, restoring ecosystems, and rebuilding livelihoods.

Their call to leaders at COP30 is simple: Help us protect our land, and we will protect our future.

Key Facts:

• 63% of the population depends on agriculture
  
• Five failed rainy seasons (2020–23) triggered the worst drought in 40 years
  
• 29.7 million people required humanitarian assistance in 2023
  
• Women, children, and marginalized groups face heightened vulnerability due to limited access to resources and services 

Turning Commitment into Action

From the drought-stricken valleys of Afghanistan to the flood-scarred hillsides of Ethiopia, the stories shared in this publication reveal a common truth: those who contribute the least to climate change are bearing its heaviest costs. In fragile and conflict-affected settings, climate shocks do not occur in isolation, they intertwine with insecurity, displacement, and poverty, deepening existing vulnerabilities.

Yet, these same communities are not passive victims. They are organizing, innovating, and leading local solutions from restoring degraded lands and managing scarce water resources, to rebuilding livelihoods through climate-resilient farming and collective action. With modest but sustained support, these efforts can be scaled to transform entire ecosystems and economies.

As leaders and donors gather at COP30, we must remind decision-makers that climate adaptation cannot wait, and it cannot succeed without reaching those most at risk. While global climate finance has grown, only a small fraction reaches local actors in fragile contexts — and even less is dedicated to adaptation. Bridging this gap is both a moral imperative and a strategic investment in global stability and peace. 

Key Recommendations for Donors and Decision-Makers:

1. Increase adaptation finance, especially for Least Developed Countries and Fragile States.

Developed country Parties must at least triple public adaptation finance by 2030, especially in the form of grants, prioritising vulnerable communities and locally led strategies. The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 trillion must be operationalized by giving a prominent role to grants and public finance, reflecting Just Transition principles, social and environmental safeguards, and defining clear sub-targets for Mitigation, Adaptation, and Loss and Damage.

2. Support locally led and inclusive adaptation.

Empower local governments, civil society, women, and youth organizations to lead adaptation planning and implementation. This ensures solutions are context-specific, sustainable, and equitable. People from Ethiopia and Afghanistan are not asking for charity; they are asking for partnership, fairness, and the means to adapt with dignity.

3. Integrate climate resilience into humanitarian, peacebuilding, and development programmes.

In fragile settings, adaptation cannot be siloed. Donors should promote joined-up approaches that address immediate needs while strengthening long-term resilience, linking disaster preparedness, livelihood recovery, and climate adaptation.

4. Invest in data, early warning, and community systems.

Support local institutions to generate and use climate risk data, improve early warning systems, and strengthen disaster risk management capacities, saving lives and reducing economic losses before crises escalate.

At a time when climate impacts are accelerating, global solidarity must translate into direct investment in resilience, especially in places where fragility, conflict, and inequality collide. By channelling resources where they are most needed and ensuring they empower local actors, donors can turn promises into progress and hope into tangible resilience.    

WHAT PIN IS DOING IN AFGHANISTAN?

In the provinces of Herat and Ghazni (districts of Malistan and Arjestan), PIN, with AICS support, is working to contribute to the improvement of the well-being and resilience of the most vulnerable. Together we are improving their food security, livelihood production, and access to WASH services, and reducing exposure to disaster risks. The intervention aims to reach 6,606 families/46,243 individuals through a nexus approach to respond to both immediate needs through multipurpose cash assistance and longer-term recovery activities in WASH such as water infrastructure rehabilitation and disaster risk reduction activities.

Moreover, PIN leads an EU–funded consortium working across seven provinces to strengthen community resilience, livelihoods, and disaster preparedness. The programme supports climate-resilient value chains, improves farmers’ access to markets, promotes financial inclusion through savings groups, and empowers communities to manage natural resources and prepare for disasters. 

WHAT PIN IS DOING IN ETHIOPIA?

Over the past 15 years, PIN, with support from the Czech Development Agency, has implemented a holistic Natural Resource Management model in Ethiopia to strengthen environmental resilience and promote sustainable agriculture in vulnerable areas such as the Sidama Zone and the Dijo and Bilate watersheds. Working through local partnerships, PIN combines water conservation and landscape rehabilitation by strengthening communities’ capacities to build soil and water retention structures (basins, pools, and ditches), restore groundwater, reduce erosion, and revive degraded land.

These efforts are complemented by community forest nurseries, reforestation with drought-resistant native species, and training on sustainable practices for livestock. So far, the programme has rehabilitated over 10,000 hectares of degraded land and planted more than 10 million trees, proving the effectiveness of PIN’s community-led approach to restoring ecosystems and strengthening livelihoods. 

To learn more about our work, reach out to Julian Burgos, Climate Resilience Lead at People in Need.